We Who Believe in Democracy'

我们相信民主
 

Is there hope for a new Zimbabwe after Mugabe? This man is staking his life on it.
 
 是否存在穆加贝之后的新津巴布韦的希望？这个人把命都赌上了。
by JOHN FUND
由约翰·丰德
 
Saturday, December 8, 2007 12:01 a.m. EST
2007 年 12 月 8 日星期六上午 12:01 点 EST

Zimbabwe is in the news this weekend as its 83-year-old strongman, Robert Mugabe, arrives in Lisbon to attend his first European Union summit meeting in seven years. His appalling human-rights record has led British Prime Minister Gordon Brown to boycott the meeting.
本周末，播放了津巴布韦的新闻，罗伯特-穆加贝，这位83 岁高龄的寡头, 已抵达里斯本(Lisbon)参加欧盟峰会，这是穆加贝（受制裁）七年以来首次出席该会议。穆加贝的臭名昭著的人权记录致使英国首相格登·布朗抵制这次会议的召开。
 
（2002年，穆加贝在上次总统大选中获得连任之后，欧盟和美国开始对穆加贝及其支持者实行旅行和经商活动方面的制裁。去年底，欧盟在穆加贝被制裁后，首次邀请其参加在里斯本举行的欧盟—非洲峰会。）

While the spotlight has not recently been on this deeply troubled land, there are dissidents who do not want the world to forget. Earlier this year I met with one of them, a tall, charismatic 41-year-old who attended the Aspen Ideas Festival, an annual chatfest of thinkers and well-heeled idealists sponsored by the Aspen Institute.
 
近来，这块灾难深重的土地并没有受到媒体关注，一些持不同政见者很担心津巴布韦从此被世界遗忘。今年年初，我遇到他们其中的一位，他来参加亚斯平(Aspen)思想节，年纪四十一，高个子，颇有气质。（Aspen 思想节由Aspen 研究所赞助，是一年一度的交流盛会，参加者是一些思想家和理想主义者）
 
But Arthur Mutambara, who leads one of the main opposition groups fighting the Mugabe tyranny, wasn't in the Colorado Rockies to exchange pleasantries. He startled the crowd with blunt language that isn't normal parlance for politicians from the developing world.
在反抗穆加贝暴政的斗争中，阿瑟·穆塔马拉（Arthur Mutambara）带领了一个重要的反对党团体。阿瑟·穆塔马拉和一些发展中国家的政客完全不同，这次来科罗拉多落基斯（Colorado Rockies），他没有说些客套一类的话，发言坦率直接，而且语惊四座。

"We Africans are responsible for our problems, and we must take charge of our lives," he said in a commanding, deep voice reminiscent of James Earl Jones. "We must move away from aid to genuine investment. We must ensure that after getting rid of a dictator we plant deep roots for the rule of law and actually improve the lot of the people. So when we who believe in democracy triumph, I ask you to judge us harshly if we fail to live up to our promises."

"我们非洲人对我们的问题有责任，我们必须对自己的生活负责，"他带有命令口气的低沉声音让我想起詹姆斯-厄尔-琼斯。"我们必须从援助专项投资。我们必须保证在赶走独裁者之后，让法律的权威扎根，并实际改善大众的生活。所以当我们这些相信民主的人受到欢呼的时候，我请你们严厉的评判我们，如果我们不能兑现自己的承诺。"
 "
 
The crowd responded with a standing ovation. And while it might be a performance, it was a refreshing one. I've had a soft spot for Mr. Mutambara's beautiful country since I visited Zimbabwe in the 1980s and observed its largely peaceful and successful transition from white domination to black rule. But all that has changed.
 听众起立鼓掌。即便它可能有表演的成分，也仍然令人振奋。自从上世纪80 年代访问津巴布韦以来，我就对这个美丽的国家情有独钟。我注意到当时这个国家整体还比较和平，从白人统治到黑人掌权的过度也比较成功。但一切都已经改变了。
 
 
Even before the final collapse of apartheid, Mr. Mugabe massacred 25,000 members of the minority Ndebele tribe using his North Korean-trained troops. He then created a virtual one-party state after political rival Joshua Nkomo fled the country, fearing assassination.

竟然在种族隔离制度土崩瓦解的前夕，穆盖布先生仍指挥他的（朝鲜受训过的）部队，屠杀了恩德贝勒部落（Ndebele一个少数民族村落）族群达25,000人。在政治对手乔舒·亚·恩科（Joshua Nkomo）因为担心被暗杀逃到海外之后，穆加贝实际上建立了一个一党专制的国家。
 

Mr. Mugabe didn't touch the economy or basic civil liberties until 2000, when--following voter rejection of his proposed constitution--he initiated the confiscation of private farmland. The confiscation has led to famine, police terror and prompted at least one quarter of the country's 12 million people to flee.

 2000年，津巴布韦的选民投票否绝了穆加贝先生提议的宪法（由他拟定，所谓没收私有农田的法律），于是，穆加贝先生开始干预经济，限制公民的基本自由。没收私有土地导致饥荒，警察的恐怖压制，促使至少1/4的人口（1200万）逃离。。
 
Mr. Mutambara led student demonstrations against Mr. Mugabe's corrupt Zanu-PF party at the University of Zimbabwe until 1991, when he won twin Rhodes and Fulbright scholarships and departed to study science at Oxford. He received a doctorate in robotics in 1995 and went on to become an associate professor at MIT, a visiting scientist at NASA and a management consultant at McKinsey. Today, he is a man with a mission.

 1991年之前，穆塔马拉先生曾在津巴布韦大学发动学生参加反对(穆加贝的)腐败的执政党Zanu-PF的示威游行。同年他荣获罗德斯和傅爾布萊特 （Rhodes and Fulbright）双项奖学金，之后前往牛津大学学习理科。 1995年，他拿到机器人专业的博士学位，然后去麻省理工学院当副教授，做NASA的访问学者，并任麦肯锡公司（McKinsey）的管理顾问。如今, 他肩负起一项使命。
 
"My work overseas was fascinating, but I never forgot my homeland or that I would return to it," he told me as we walked around the Aspen Institute's grounds. He did go back in 2005 and promptly plunged into politics--a field that, this man of science and business admits, often defies rational analysis.

当时，我们围着Aspen研究所的空地，边走边聊，他告诉我"海外的工作让我沉迷，但是我从来没有忘记我的祖国，有朝一日我会回来"。2005年，他确实在2005年回到了津巴布韦，很快就卷入了政治，这个一直从事科学和商业的人认为，政治经常与理性分析相悖。

"Too many countries see meaningless changes in leadership," he says. They need a transformation that has both form and substance," he adds, his eyes flashing and his frustration obvious.
他说，"太多国家发生了毫无实际意义的领导层变化。它们需要在形式和本质上都改变。"他双眼有神，不满情绪清晰可见。
 
In early 2006 Mr. Mutambara was elected leader of a breakaway faction of the Movement for Democratic Change, the main opposition party founded in 1999 by Morgan Tsvangirai, a labor organizer. But Mr. Tsvangirai eventually alienated many of his party's members with his perceived highhandedness.

2006年初，穆塔马拉先生当选为一个（从MDC分裂出去的）小党领袖，MDC全称民主变革运动党，MDC是1999年由原工会的大会秘书长摩根·茨万吉拉伊（Morgan Tsvangirai,）成立的反对党。然而最终，但由于茨万吉拉伊的专横，最终很多党员远离了他。
 
Today, Mr. Mutambara and Mr. Tsvangirai each head factions with a roughly equal number of seats in parliament. They bitterly disagree on how to dislodge Mr. Mugabe, and the two men alternate between solidarity and rivalry. In March, both were arrested, tortured by Mr. Mugabe's secret police and then paraded together before a court before being released. But only weeks later they were trading insults.

如今，穆塔马拉先生和茨万吉拉伊先生的各自派系在议会中席位相当，对于如何结束穆加贝的统治发生激烈分歧。两人时而团结，时而竞争。三月（2007年），两人都被逮捕，受到穆加贝秘密警察的严刑拷打，释放之前，他们又一前一后共同步入法庭。可是，几周之后，他们又开始互相对骂。

Mr. Mutambara accused Mr. Tsvangirai of being "an intellectual midget," and in turn was attacked for being absent from the country for years while his people suffered. Both men agree on the need to present a united front in elections that are scheduled for next March--but their failure to nail down how only makes the job of Mr. Mugabe, a past master at vote-rigging and intimidation, all the easier.
穆塔马拉指责茨万吉拉伊是个"反智白痴"，茨万吉拉伊回应说，当津巴布韦的老百姓在受苦的时候，穆塔马拉先常年在国外逍遥。他们两位都同意必须在零八年三月的选举中组成联合战线，但是没能敲定如何实现这个联联盟，这让操纵选举的老手穆加贝松了一口气。

The ruling Zanu-PF regime has just passed a new law allowing phone calls and emails to be monitored. Another law will gerrymander parliament in its favor.
 
Zanu-PF 政权刚通过一项新法律，监控电话和电子邮件。另一项法律会让这个政权更容易控制国会。

Mr. Mugabe also has no intention of letting the three million expatriate Zimbabweans vote. He is fully aware of how election rules can be rigged to frustrate popular majorities: In 1948, the white National Party first came to power in South Africa losing the popular vote but winning a parliamentary majority of underpopulated rural seats. Apartheid and the stripping of the right to vote from Indian and mixed-race voters were in part a National Party strategy to ensure it would win all future elections.

穆加贝并不希望让三百万海外的津巴布韦的侨民参加投票，他完全知道怎样玩弄选举游戏规则击败多数派：一九四八年，南非的国民党(白人政党)，虽然输了普选票，但是赢得了国会中（人口稀少的）农村席次中的多数议席，而首度上台执政。当年国民党实行种族隔离政策，剥夺印度裔和混血裔的投票权，都是确保现政权在未来的选举中获胜的手段。

Mr. Mutambara's hope is that leaders of the 14-country Southern African Development Community will be able to pressure Mr. Mugabe into agreeing to new election rules, and international supervision of the March vote in exchange for help in staving off economic collapse. Thabo Mbeki, South Africa's president, has been leading talks between Zanu-PF and the opposition MDC.

穆塔马拉先生希望十四个南非发展的成员国，能够用协助津巴布韦摆脱经济崩溃为交换条件，向穆加贝施加压力，要他认可新的选举法，并同意接受国际社会对津巴布韦三月的大选的监督。塔博·姆贝基(Thabo  Mbeki ), 南非的总统, 一直在推动Zanu-PF 和反对党MDC 之间对话。
 

So far only minor progress has been made, but Mr. Mutambara says, "I believe Mbeki wants to build a legacy as a regional peacemaker. He also knows that South Africa can't hold a truly successful World Cup [soccer championship] in 2010 if its neighbor to the north is engulfed in chaos."
 "我相信姆贝基想留下地区和平缔造者的形象。他也明白如果北边的邻国一片混乱，南非不可能成功举办2010年世界杯足球赛。"
到目前为止，丝毫的进展没有，但是穆塔马拉先生说，"我相信姆贝基是想要建立好自己作为地区的调解人的传统的。他也知道如果北方的邻国还陷在混乱当中，南非是无法在 2010年真正成功举办的世界杯 [ 足球冠军 ]的。"

It's hard to describe the chaos that Zimbabwe is slipping into. The International Monetary Fund reported last month that inflation could reach 100,000% in a matter of weeks. Mr. Mugabe has responded by arresting 7,500 people for violating his price controls.
 
很难说的清楚，津巴布韦混乱到了什么地步，上个月，国际货币基金组织报告说在几周之内，津巴布韦的通货膨胀将达到100，000%，穆加贝先生对应措施则是，逮捕七千五百名违反了他的价格管制的人。
 

Meat, produce, cooking oil and basic medicines are usually available only on the black market. The United Nations estimates that four million Zimbabweans will need food handouts by next year. A high-school teacher admitted to the London Times that she is selling sexual services to Mugabe henchmen, along with "three-quarters" of her colleagues, in order to buy food for her children.

肉，产品，食用油，基本的药品只能在黑市才买得到。联合国预计明年将有四百万津巴布韦人需要食品供应。一位高中老师对《伦敦时报》透露，为了给自己的小孩买食物，她和"四分之三"同事一道，和穆加贝的党羽作性交易。

Nonetheless, it was still jarring this summer to hear Archbishop Pius Ncube, the head of Zimbabwe's one million Catholics, openly call on Britain, the former colonial power, to invade the country: "I think it is justified for Britain to raid Zimbabwe and remove Mugabe," he told Western reporters. "We should do it ourselves but there's too much fear. I'm ready to lead the people, guns blazing, but the people are not ready." But that may be slowly changing 
 
不过，更让人震惊的事，今年夏天，津巴布韦大主教匹尔斯·恩库伯（Pius Ncube ）公开呼吁英国，前津巴布韦殖民政府，来入侵这个国家，"我认为英国袭击津巴布韦，赶走穆加贝，是完全正义的行动"他告诉记者，"我们应该自己动手，但是这里太恐怖了，我乐于为人民效劳，拿起武器，可是我们的民众还没心理准备。"但是情况正在逐渐改变。
 
Zimpundit, a local blogger who remains anonymous for obvious reasons, says the fact that both Messrs. Tsvangirai and Mutambara have been brutally beaten has changed the public's attitudes toward demonstrations and strikes.
Zimpundit （http://zimpundit.blogspot.com/）, 一个当地的部落格作家，因为某些明显的因素，他至今匿名发表。他说，穆塔马拉先生和

茨万吉拉伊先生都惨遭（当局的）毒打，这也改变了公众对游行示威和罢工的看法。

"People feared them because they felt they were being used as political pawns by leaders who didn't want to endure the wrath of the police on their own," Zimpundit writes. "Tsvangirai and Mutambara have, because of this [torture] gained more credibility with people. Look for this to spawn more protest."
民众心存恐惧，他们感觉自己被政治领袖利用，那些人自己不愿受到警察的镇压。塔马拉和茨万吉拉伊因为曾经受过折磨，因此在大众中有信誉。他们有资源组织更多的抗议。

That's just as well since, of course, there is no prospect of a British invasion. But British Prime Minister Gordon Brown should consider creating a foreign aid package that would be contingent on Mr. Mugabe's departure. An offer such as this could act as an incentive for Mugabe's underlings to overthrow him and restore some sanity to the economy.  
同时，人们当然也不会指望英国的介入。不过英国首相布朗应该考虑筹办一个援助计划，应付穆加贝下台后的状况。这种安排可以吸引穆加贝的手下起来推翻他，并帮助应付经济危机。

I ask Mr. Mutambara about his own plans for Zimbabwe's economy should the opposition take power. "First, we implement a stabilization plan to stop the rot," he says, counting off on his fingers, "pegging the currency to something of real value is top priority. Second, a plan to restore the half of our economy that's been destroyed.
 
我问过穆塔马拉，一旦在野党夺得政权，对于津巴布韦的经济，他的个人方案如何？他说"首先，我们会实施稳定计划以组织经济继续下滑"，"当务之急是让津币和有价值的货币挂钩。""其次，我要制定计划另外一半被摧毁的经济复兴。"

"Bringing in honest judges to enforce contracts and reassure investors is key. Third, we need to bring in scientific expertise to restore our place as a breadbasket of Africa and create a manufacturing base that can compete on cost and quality."
让有诚信的法官上任，给投资人有保障，让订合约生效，这才是关键，第三，我们要请科学专家，来重建我们的家园使其成为非洲的粮仓，创建一个工业基础让我们在成本与质量方面能够有竞争力。

How big a role does he envision free markets playing in a new Zimbabwe? "I appreciate the success you get when people can create wealth. Fifty years ago, Singapore had the same GDP as Ghana. Now it has a per-capita income greater than Germany, France or Britain," he notes. "Our economy should be liberated, we need creative dreamers who do not fear globalization."
怎样让新的市场经济发挥其巨大的作用?"老百姓能致富了，你们就成功了，我很欣赏这点。50年前，新加坡的经济总量GDP和加纳相同的，现在他们的人均收入比德国，法国，英国还要高。""我们的经济要自由化，我们需要有创造力的追梦者，他们毫不担心世界经济的全球化"

But when it comes to details, Mr. Mutambara admits there will be healthy elements of a mixed economy--he sees key sectors such as railroads remaining in state hands. As for Mr. Mugabe's lawless confiscations, white farmers who saw their land seized and fled the country shouldn't expect to get it back, though Mr. Mutambara is intrigued by voucher schemes that were used in Eastern Europe to partly compensate victims of communist expropriations.
具体地说，穆塔马拉先生承认在混合型的经济中还有些健康的元素。他发现关键的行业，比如铁路还在国家的手中。至于穆加贝非法的没收的土地，那些土地被夺走而且逃离家园的白人农场主不应该再期望取回土地， 虽然穆塔马拉先生对代金券计划颇有兴趣。东欧曾用代金券来作为部分地补偿当年（遭到共产党征收的）受害人。
 
What about the treatment of Mr. Mugabe's collaborators once his regime has fallen? "No blanket amnesty, if you've committed genocide there will be responsibility," he says. "But there are aspects of what South Africa has done that we can learn from. Their Truth Commission allowed victims to confront their oppressors, re ceive some restorative justice and then move on."

我问到，一旦穆加贝政权垮台，怎样处理他的那些共犯？"没有免费的大赦。如果你实行了种族屠杀，你就应该为此负责。" "在南非有些可以值得借鉴之处，他们的真相调查委员会允许受害人，和当年的迫害者对质，得到一些补偿性正义，然后大家往前走。"

Mr. Mutambara is himself constantly in motion at Aspen, alternately speaking as a freedom fighter and a politician who clearly wants to appeal to both liberals and conservatives in the West. At one Aspen event he waxes lyrically about the need to strive for "collective humanity, global sovereignty and global dignity," a string of empty buzz words that nonetheless leaves a warm glow with his audience.

在亚斯平(Aspen)上，穆塔马拉先生不断的变换角色，发言时而象一个自由斗士，时而象一个政治人物，很希望吸引到西方的自由派和保守派的注意。在一次亚斯平活动中，他抛出一大串空空的亮丽词藻，说要推动"群体人性，全球主权，全球尊严"，不过这让听众眼睛放光。。
 

At another panel, participants debate if curbing global warming will be compatible with economic growth. He nods enthusiastically as a speaker points out that the hundreds of millions of Africans who have never turned on a light switch won't tolerate being left behind economically if the world pursues carbon caps.
 
。
 

在另外一个讨论小组，参与者正在辩论遏止全球暖化是否可以和经济发展相融合。当一个发言人指出，在数以亿计的非洲人还没有用过电灯的情况下，不能允许限制碳排放的压力，让他们在经济上一直落在后面，他热情的点头同意.
 

"A person living in Darfur can't afford to be green," Mr. Mutambara reminded the audience during the Q&A.
 
在问答期间，穆塔马拉先生提醒观众。 "在达尔富尔地区生活的人负担不起'绿色'的生活"
 
As Mr. Mutambara prepares to pack to fly home to Zimbabwe, I ask him about his own safety. Doesn't he worry about what the regime could do to him?
 
当穆塔马拉先生准备行装，飞回津巴布韦，我问道，他的安全怎么办。难道不担心穆加贝政权对他下手吗？

He says he would if he weren't convinced the Zanu-PF leaders are "both moral and physical cowards" who are unsure of what might happen if prominent opposition leaders such as himself are killed.

 他说他不担心，因为他确信Zanu-PF党的头头们"在道德上和行动上都是懦夫"，他们不知道如果像他这样的主要反对派领袖被杀，会发生什么事。

It is also a relief to know his wife and children are in South Africa while he is on the front line.

虽然他在斗争第一线上，但是他的妻子和小孩都在南非，也是算是一件宽慰的事了。
 
But he recognizes the risks he faces every time he returns. "After all it was your Founding Fathers who said, 'give me liberty or death,' " he says, flashing a broad smile. "I plan to gain the first, but I know I have to risk the second to get it."
每次回到津巴布韦，他都认识到面临的风险。" 毕竟，你们的建国元勋曾说过,'毋自由，吾宁死," 他露出灿烂的微笑，说道，"我打算争取到前者（自由），但是我明白，我必须冒险经历后者（出生入死）才能得到。"
 

Mr. Fund is a columnist for OpinionJournal.com.

http://opinionjournal.com/editorial/?id=110010964